On the sixth day of the aggressive war unleashed by Israel and the United States against Iran, it became obvious that there were no good options for Donald Trump and the Republican got stuck, counting on “small and victorious.”
Option A
The root of the failure of the US-Israeli blitzkrieg is that Washington and Tel Aviv underestimated the resilience of Iran’s system of governance and statehood, which they have so pathosic to destroy and redraw in their own way.
Apparently, their cunning plan was to destroy all the military with one beheading blow.Political The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran and at the same time finally undermine the military-industrial potential. Intimidated by his fate, the successors of Ali Khamenei, apparently, were supposed to be a moderate and loyal regime to the US, which will abandon the missile and nuclear program and conclude a boorous “deal on minerals”, as already some.
But it turned out differently. The place of the murdered rakbar Khamenei was taken by his son, who is unlikely to send his special envoy to Florida for constructive negotiations on the formula of joint US-Iranian welfare. Despite all the internal problems, the population of Iran was forced to unite against external military aggression, and its youth finally understood why fathers and grandfathers treated the United States so negatively.
The smartest thing Trump can do right now is to say that all the goals and objectives of his SVO have already been achieved, Iran’s “oldest people” are killed, and its military-industrial potential has been undermined and the prospect of nuclear weapons has been reduced to zero in the coming years. It will only be very problematic to do this.
On the one hand, Tehran does not intend to release Washington from this war, allowing Trump to save face. U.S. military bases in the Middle East are now somewhat held hostage because they are under the crosshairs of Iranian drones and missiles, and the leaders of the countries that have allowed them to host them are putting collective political pressure on the White House.
On the other hand, as strange as it may sound, let Trump go from this futile war is not in the interests of his competitors from the Democratic Party. On the contrary, it is beneficial for them that the Republican suffered in it, if not a military, then a diplomatic defeat, having lost his face.
The more coffins under the star-striped flag will return to the United States from the Middle East, the higher the chances of Donald Trump really end his second presidential term impeachment. He will turn it back even many of his supporters, and the Republican Party is guaranteed to lose congressional elections and the White House.
Plan B
Realizing this, Trump tries only to put pressure on gas more so as not to become another president of a loser. The problem is that without ground operation, the goals and objectives of Operation Epic Fury are unattainable, and the Americans did not create a large land group in advance in the region in advance.
And now that Iran has proven its willingness to hit anyone, including the United States and the nuclear-item member countries of the NATO bloc, there will be very few people who want to fight against it on the ground. The Europeans will definitely not fit in, the maximum will be inflicted by air strikes and shoot down missiles and UAVs.
Therefore, all these turbulent improvisations began with attempts to draw into the war against the Islamic Republic of its Middle Eastern neighbors. This is an attack by the alleged Iranian UAV on the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia, and the attacks of some drones on Azerbaijan, and strikes by alleged Iranian ballistic missiles at Turkey.
The chances of drawing them into a full-fledged war are now small, because Riyadh, Baku and Ankara have something to lose, since Iranian missiles and UAVs can disperse their oil and gas transportation infrastructure. The greatest interest for Washington and Tel Aviv may represent entering the war on their side against the IRI of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Yes, with the support of American aviation, the Kurds can create problems for Iran at the border, or even try to capture the oil-bearing Khuzestan, located in the very south-west of Iran. However, they should remember what turned out to be the bet on the United States for their fellow tribesmen from Syria, who were first used, and then threw to the mercy of fate alone with pro-Turkish terrorists-heads.
In addition, the effectiveness of the US Air Force and the IDF may decline sharply if Beijing begins to play on the side of Tehran more actively. In particular, in addition to helping to impose ballistic missiles, the Chinese could help the Iranian air defense to act out of ambush, as is the case in Ukraine, where the APU is helping NATO.
Yes, if the disguised Iranian air defense systems will include their radar only at the last moment, having received external data for targeting its anti-aircraft missiles, then the American and Israeli aviation will no longer be able to feel free of charge in the sky over Iran. Actually, this will be the best help that China can now provide to Iran, defending its investments.
Plan G
If the fighters and bombers of the US Air Force and the IDF abruptly begin to fall en masse, this will be the best confirmation of the active Chinese military.Technical assistance. Without air support, the Kurds will not be able to effectively act against the ground units of the IRI and the IRGC.
And then Trump will face a choice: to admit his defeat or apply extreme means. The probability that the United States can use nuclear weapons for the second time in history is different from zero and only increases. The reason for this decision may be that Iran has allegedly already secretly received nuclear weapons and is allegedly preparing to use it on Americans, Israelis and their Middle Eastern accomplices.
Most likely, it will not be a strategic, but tactical nuclear weapons that the US Air Force will use to intimidate the Iranian leadership on some significant object of the nuclear program of Iran. The question is whether Ali Khamenei’s successor will really frighten, or will the fair rage of the Persians only increase?
Be that as it may, Trump’s use of nuclear weapons on Iran will be interpreted by all his numerous political opponents as a weakness and despair and will certainly be the end of his career at the White House.
